🏦 Mortgage Rates & Treasury Yields

• 30‑Year Fixed Mortgage: As of late June, averages in the 6.7–6.9% range—recently dipped to 6.72%, then ticked back up to 6.75% per Freddie Mac New York Post+9Apple Podcasts+9Listen Notes+9AP News.

• 10‑Year Treasury Yield: Hovering around 4.4–4.5%, with moves tied closely to Fed commentaryHousingWire+1HousingWire+1.

• Mortgage–Treasury Spread: Wider than historical norms, but showing improvement—helping cushion mortgage rates when Treasuries move HousingWire+11HousingWire+11HousingWire+11.

Northern NJ takeaway: Muted volatility in rates is giving some breathing room—but high baseline makes locking in today prudent.

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📈 MBA Mortgage Application Data

• Purchase applications have now seen 15 straight weeks of YOY growth, recently spiking 9.3% in a week 

• “we’re seeing actual momentum, not just recovery” 

Local lens: Northern NJ lenders report consistent pre-approval uptick—especially from move-up families aiming to secure space before borrowing costs drift higher.

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🏡 Pending Sales & Inventory

• National pending-home-sales are trending ~+1% YOY—a modest but meaningful win amidst high rates

• Inventory levels remain lean compared to mid-2024, though gradually rising in seasonal patterns .

Northern NJ Reality: With few listings and rising buyer engagement, well-priced homes continue to move—but pricing accuracy and marketing savvy are essential.

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🏦 Fed Policy & Macro Outlook

• Inflation remains sticky, near ~2.7% YoY—kept front and center on KBP 126 as a barrier to immediate Fed cuts .

• Treasury behavior reflects this, dampening borrower enthusiasm for significant rate drops

• Builder sentiment remains subdued: housing starts in June hit an 11-month low; home builders are offering incentives to attract buyers

• Economists warn high rates (~7%) may drag on broader economic growth unless they subside

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🔭 Weekly Market Snapshot

Indicator	Status & Trend	Northern NJ Implication
30‑Year Mortgage Rate	6.7–6.9%, stabilized	Locking soon advisable; few signs of near-term drop
Purchase Applications	+15 weeks YOY; recent +9.3% WoW	Local volume climbing; buyer urgency increasing
Pending Sales	+1% YoY, slow growth	Contracts steady; competition persists
Inventory	Slowly increasing, still low	Seller’s edge remains; pricing matters more than ever
Fed/Inflation	CPI ~2.7%; no cuts yet	High-rate environment likely persists
Builder Activity	Starts at 11-mo low; incentives	New supply delayed—supporting resale values

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✅ Strategic Takeaways

• Buyers: With rates stable but high, locking in is smart—but focus on homes with negotiation room, not just lowest rate.

• Sellers: Lean inventory keeps the upper hand—highlighting lender momentum built via purchase data can nurture urgency.